I am learning new things about the markets every day that I am trading options. One of these new things that continue to surprise me is partial fills. If your trades are small compared to the liquidity of a stock, you rarely see this. For example, if you trade 500 shares of GE, it is usually always executed in a single fill. However, if you trade 500 shares of a company like USEC (USU), then you might get fills of 100 shares at a time (especially if you use a limit order). This, I understand.
What I don't get is why sometimes people are just out to get you. Take a look at the following trade result. That's right, I got filled 4 shares of a 3.49 stock. Someone paid a commission to sell 13.96 worth of shares. I don't think it is a part of a larger order because I was sitting on that limit order for a while. Notice the round lot fills around it.
Is it just a mistake or is it a glimpse into the sort of people that trade micro cap issues? Did they want to bail out and get a couple dollars from their position? Either way, it sucked for me since it took a really long time for the last 96 shares to be filled and I saw lots of round lots fly by. In the end, someone else got filled 96 and then is looking to sell 4 shares and the annoyance gets passed around.
Saturday, March 8, 2008
Perplexed by partial fills
Monday, March 3, 2008
USEC (USU), an interesting Uranium / nuclear energy play
With oil hitting new records, everyone is looking towards other energy sources. Natural gas is no help, that's expensive too. In fact, the reason we have so many natural gas power plants is because we thought it would stay cheap. For an example of how difficult it is to predict natural gas prices, look up the Amaranth Advisors disaster. Coal, solar, and nuclear plays are all being bit to new highs.
I think most of this is irrational. Energy prices are high due to a speculative bubble and market manipulation (by OPEC and others). Stocks in those sectors are also incredibly expensive. Take Exelon Corporation (EXC), a nuclear plant operator. It is in a great position because no nuclear plants are being constructed. However, I do not like owning any utility at a P/E of 20. That's just silly.
While doing some research on nuclear energy, I did find an interesting little company called USEC (USU). It is the owner of the United States Enrichment Corporation. USEC (USU) was privatized over a decade ago. It currently operates a gas diffusion enrichment plant which is barely breaking even. (Enrichment is a part of the process that creates fuel for nuclear power plants). It also performs some contracting services for the United States Government.
A company with only one operation that's barely breaking even -- that doesn't sound very good at any price. However, the story behind the stock is that it is building a new gas centrifuge enrichment plant. It is expected to use 95% less energy than the current plant (rising energy prices is why the current one is barely breaking even).
So, why is the stock in the dumps? Well, the project is 50% over budget and likely to be behind schedule. There are lots of other companies doing the same thing. In this credit environment, a small player like USEC (USU) may not be able to get funding to finish this plant.
So, why buy the stock? Well, recently President Bush passed a series of bills that includes loan guarantees for nuclear companies. USEC (USU) is likely to qualify. Its competitors face difficulty in placing their new plant due to NIMBY (not in my back yard). USEC (USU) has two properties on lease from the DOE for this purpose.
With the current price, there is a lot of upside for moderate downside. I've been picking it up since the 6.50 level and will continue to accumulate. I am also looking at selling some puts at the 5.00 strike.
Lots of risk, but if you believe in the nuclear renaissance, USEC (USU) is definitely a ticker for the watch list.