Selected Dividends and Earnings for May 3, 2009 to May 9, 2009

Monday, May 4, 2009

Earnings

• Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK) after market close
• Entergy (ETR) before market open
• EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) after market close
• Loews Corp. (L) before market open
• McKesson Corporation (MCK)
• Sprint Nextel Corporation (S)
• SYSCO Corporation (SYY)
• The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) before market open
• The Principal Financial Group (PFG)
• Tyson Foods (TSN) before market open
• Vulcan Materials (VMC) after market close

Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Dividends

• FirstEnergy (FE) - $0.550 payable 1-Jun
• Intel Corporation (INTC) - $0.140 payable 1-Jun
• KB Home (KBH) - $0.063 payable 21-May
• MeadWestvaco (MWV) - $0.230 payable 1-Jun

Earnings

• Allegheny Energy, Inc. (AYE) before market open
• American Capital Ltd. (ACAS) after market close
• Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) before market open
• Automatic Data Processing (ADP) before market open
• Avon Products Inc. (AVP)
• Centex Corporation (CTX)
• Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) before market open
• Constellation Energy Group, Inc. (CEG)
• CVS Caremark Corporation (CVS) before market open
• D.R. Horton (DHI) before market open
• Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) before market open
• Electronic Arts (ERTS) after market close
• Emerson Electric (EMR) before market open
• FirstEnergy (FE)
• GENPACT LIMITED (G)
• IntercontinentalExchange, Inc. (ICE) before market open
• Kraft Foods (KFT)
• Legg Mason (LM)
• Lincoln National (LNC) after market close
• Molson Coors Brewing Company (TAP)
• Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW)
• Pitney Bowes Inc. (PBI) after market close
• Precision Castparts (PCP) before market open
• Progress Energy (PGN)
• Pulte Homes Inc. (PHM) after market close
• Sempra Energy (SRE)
• SiRF Technology Holdings Inc. (SIRF) after market close
• Spectra Energy (SE) before market open
• Tenet Healthcare (THC) before market open
• The St. Joe Company (JOE) before market open
• Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) before market open
• Walt Disney (DIS)
• Weyerhaeuser Co. (WY) before market open

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Dividends

• ALCOA Inc (AA) - $0.030 payable 25-May
• American Electric Power (AEP) - $0.410 payable 10-Jun
• Charles Schwab (SCHW) - $0.060 payable 22-May
• CMS Energy Corp. (CMS) - $0.125 payable 29-May
• Federated Investors, Inc (FII) - $0.240 payable 15-May
• Hudson City Bancorp (HCBK) - $0.150 payable 30-May
• International Business Machines (IBM) - $0.550 payable 10-Jun
• Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG) - payable 12-May
• Pfizer (PFE) - $0.160 payable 2-Jun
• The Boeing Company (BA) - $0.420 payable 5-Jun
• Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) - $0.050 payable 1-Jun

Earnings

• Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (APC) after market close
• Cisco Systems (CSCO) after market close
• Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) before market open
• Embarq Corporation (EQ) after market close
• Expeditors International WA (EXPD) after market close
• Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MMC) before market open
• Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) after market close
• PG&E Corporation (PCG) before market open
• Prudential Financial, Inc. (PRU) after market close
• RR Donnelley (RRD) before market open
• Sunoco (SUN) after market close
• Symantec (SYMC)
• Tesoro Corporation (TSO) after market close
• Towerstream Corporation (TWER) after market close
• Transocean LTD. (RIG) before market open
• XTO Energy Inc. (XTO)

Thursday, May 7, 2009

Dividends

• Altera Corporation (ALTR) - $0.050 payable 1-Jun
• Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) - $0.050 payable 20-May
• Noble Energy, Inc. (NBL) - $0.180 payable 26-May
• PPG Industries (PPG) - $0.530 payable 12-Jun
• Sunoco (SUN) - $0.300 payable 10-Jun
• Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) - $0.950 payable 12-Jun
• W.W. Grainger (GWW) - $0.460 payable 1-Jun

Earnings

• American International Group (AIG) after market close
• Cameron (CAM)
• CBS Corporation (CBS) after market close
• Crocs, Inc. (CROX)
• Dynegy, Inc. (DYN)
• Frontier Communications Corporation (FTR) before market open
• Frontier Oil (FTO) before market open
• Genworth Financial, Inc. (GNW) after market close
• Luxottica Group (LUX)
• Markel Corporation (MKL)
• Microchip Technology (MCHP) after market close
• Millipore Corp. (MIL) after market close
• NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
• Pepco Holdings, Inc. (POM)
• Public Storage (PSA)
• Rowan Companies, Inc. (RDC)
• Sara Lee (SLE)
• Teradata (TDC) before market open
• The Allstate Corporation (ALL) after market close
• The DIRECTV Group, Inc. (DTV) before market open
• VeriSign, Inc. (VRSN) after market close
• Wendy's / Arby's Group, Inc. (WEN) before market open

Friday, May 8, 2009

Dividends

• Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation (COG) - $0.030 payable 26-May
• Veolia Environnement SA (VE) - $1.359 payable

Earnings

• Edison International (EIX)
• El Paso Corp. (EP) before market open
• Scripps Networks Interactive Inc (SNI) before market open
• Windstream Communications (WIN)

Underlined tickers are those that are particularly interesting for me; they may be on my watch list or I may have open positions (i.e. likely naked put options or the underlying).

Selected Dividends and Earnings for February 8, 2009 to February 14, 2009

Monday, February 9, 2009

Dividends

• Entergy (ETR) - $0.750 payable 2-Mar
• Fortune Brands (FO) - $0.440 payable 2-Mar
• Noble Corporation (NE) - $0.040 payable 2-Mar
• Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU) - $0.060 payable 4-Mar
• United States Steel Corp. (X) - $0.300 payable 10-Mar
• Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) - $0.150 payable 11-Mar
• Zions Bancorp (ZION) - $0.040 payable 25-Feb

Earnings

• Barclays PLC (BCS) before market open
• Genworth Financial, Inc. (GNW) after market close
• Hasbro, Inc. (HAS) before market open
• Lincare Holdings (LNCR) after market close
• Lincoln National (LNC) after market close
• Loews Corp. (L) before market open
• Lorillard, Inc. (LO)
• NYSE Euronext (NYX) before market open
• Rohm and Haas Company (ROH) before market open
• The Principal Financial Group (PFG) after market close
• Vulcan Materials (VMC) after market close
• Whirlpool Corporation (WHR) before market open

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Dividends

• Applied Materials (AMAT) - $0.060 payable 5-Mar
• Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) - $0.900 payable 18-Mar
• The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) - $0.110 payable 5-Mar

Earnings

• Applied Materials (AMAT) after market close
• CB Richard Ellis Group, Inc. (CBG) after market close
• Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC) after market close
• Coventry Health Care, Inc (CVH) before market open
• DaVita (DVA) after market close
• Elan Corporation, plc (ELN) before market open
• Expeditors International WA (EXPD) before market open
• Fidelity National Information (FIS) after market close
• HCP, INC. (HCP) before market open
• IntercontinentalExchange, Inc. (ICE) before market open
• Molson Coors Brewing Company (TAP) before market open
• NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) after market close
• Omnicom Group (OMC) before market open
• Pepsi Bottling Group (PBG) before market open
• ProLogis (PLD) before market open
• Qwest Communications (Q) before market open
• SiRF Technology Holdings Inc. (SIRF) before market open
• The DIRECTV Group, Inc. (DTV)
• Unisys (UIS) before market open
• VF Corporation (VFC) after market close
• XL Capital Ltd (XL) after market close

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Dividends

• AK Steel Holding Corp (AKS) - $0.050 payable 10-Mar
• Bemis Company, Inc. (BMS) - $0.225 payable 2-Mar
• CenterPoint Energy (CNP) - $0.190 payable 10-Mar
• Charles Schwab (SCHW) - $0.060 payable 27-Feb
• Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) - $0.160 payable 27-Feb
• D.R. Horton (DHI) - $0.038 payable 26-Feb
• Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) - $0.230 payable 16-Mar
• DuPont (DD) - $0.410 payable 13-Mar
• Eli Lilly (LLY) - $0.490 payable 10-Mar
• Emerson Electric (EMR) - $0.330 payable 10-Mar
• Exelon Corporation (EXC) - $0.525 payable 10-Mar
• Harman International Industries (HAR) - $0.013 payable 2-Mar
• Ingersoll-Rand Co. Ltd. (IR) - $0.180 payable 2-Mar
• International Paper Co. (IP) - $0.250 payable 16-Mar
• Linear Technology (LLTC) - $0.220 payable 25-Feb
• Microchip Technology (MCHP) - $0.339 payable 27-Feb
• Otter Tail Power (OTTR) - $0.298 payable 10-Mar
• Qwest Communications (Q) - $0.080 payable 6-Mar
• Rockwell Collins, Inc. (COL) - $0.240 payable 9-Mar
• Rohm and Haas Company (ROH) - $0.410 payable 2-Mar
• Spectra Energy (SE) - $0.250 payable 16-Mar
• The Kroger Co. (KR) - $0.090 payable 1-Mar
• Wyeth (WYE) - $0.300 payable 2-Mar

Earnings

• Allegheny Energy, Inc. (AYE) before market open
• Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc. (CCE) before market open
• Dean Foods (DF) before market open
• Genzyme Corporation (GENZ)
• Ingersoll-Rand Co. Ltd. (IR) before market open
• iRobot Corp. (IRBT) after market close
• Jones Apparel Group Inc. (JNY) before market open
• Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MMC) before market open
• Masco (MAS) after market close
• NetApp, Inc. (NTAP) after market close
• Questar Corp. (STR) after market close
• Realty Income Corporation (O) after market close
• Reynolds American, Inc. (RAI)
• Sigma-Aldrich Corporation (SIAL) before market open
• Terex Corporation (TEX) after market close

Thursday, February 12, 2009

Dividends

• AmeriSourceBergen (ABC) - $0.100 payable 2-Mar
• Avon Products Inc. (AVP) - $0.210 payable 2-Mar
• CA (CA) - $0.040 payable 13-Mar
• Chevron (CVX) - $0.650 payable 10-Mar
• CIT Group (CIT) - $0.020 payable 27-Feb
• Jabil Circuit, Inc. (JBL) - $0.070 payable 2-Mar
• Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) - $0.250 payable 2-Mar
• Rockwell Automation (ROK) - $0.290 payable 10-Mar
• Ryder System, Inc. (R) - $0.230 payable 13-Mar
• TECO Energy Inc. (TE) - $0.200 payable 27-Feb

Earnings

• Aetna Inc. (AET) before market open
• Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation (COG)
• Ecolab Inc. (ECL) before market open
• Embarq Corporation (EQ) after market close
• Laboratory Corporation of America (LH)
• Marriott International (MAR) before market open
• Progress Energy (PGN) before market open
• Teradata (TDC) before market open
• The Coca-Cola Company (KO) before market open
• Waste Management (WMI) before market open

Friday, February 13, 2009

Dividends

• Aflac Incorporated (AFL) - $0.280 payable 2-Mar
• Consolidated Edison, Inc. (ED) - $0.590 payable 15-Mar
• Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO) - $0.240 payable 10-Mar
• Schlumberger (SLB) - $0.210 payable 3-Apr
• Walgreen (WAG) - $0.113 payable 12-Mar

Earnings

• Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) before market open
• Ameren Corporation (AEE) after market close
• Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) before market open
• PepsiCo (PEP) before market open
• Wyndham Worldwide (WYN) before market open

Underlined tickers are those that are particularly interesting for me; they may be on my watch list or I may have open positions (i.e. likely naked put options or the underlying).

Selected Dividends and Earnings for October 26, 2008 to November 1, 2008

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Dividends

• ConAgra Foods (CAG) - $0.190 payable 1-Dec
• ConocoPhillips (COP) - $0.470 payable 1-Dec
• NiSource (NI) - $0.230 payable 20-Nov
• Paychex (PAYX) - $0.310 payable 15-Nov
• People's United Financial Inc. (PBCT) - $0.150 payable 15-Nov
• Rohm and Haas Company (ROH) - $0.410 payable 1-Dec
• Texas Instruments (TXN) - $0.110 payable 17-Nov

Earnings

• Aetna Inc. (AET)
• Allergan (AGN)
• Allied Waste Industries, Inc. (AW) after market close
• Ameriprise Financial, Inc. (AMP) after market close
• Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) after market close
• CA (CA) after market close
• Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH) before market open
• Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. (CME) after market close
• Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF) before market open
• Comcast Corporation (CMCSA) before market open
• Corning (GLW) before market open
• DTE Energy Company (DTE) after market close
• Equity Residential (EQR)
• Harman International Industries (HAR)
• Hartford Financial Services (HIG) after market close
• Hess Corporation (HES) before market open
• JDSU (JDSU) after market close
• Jones Apparel Group Inc. (JNY) before market open
• Kellogg Co. (K) before market open
• Kraft Foods (KFT) before market open
• Legg Mason (LM) before market open
• MeadWestvaco (MWV) before market open
• Meredith Corporation (MDP) before market open
• MetLife, Inc. (MET) after market close
• Moody's Corporation (MCO) before market open
• Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)
• Newmont Mining Corporation (NEM) before market open
• Noble Energy, Inc. (NBL)
• Office Depot Inc. (ODP) before market open
• Praxair Inc (PX) before market open
• Procter & Gamble Company (PG)
• Prudential Financial, Inc. (PRU) after market close
• Questar Corp. (STR) after market close
• Qwest Communications (Q) before market open
• Realty Income Corporation (O) after market close
• Scripps Networks Interactive Inc (SNI) before market open
• Sealed Air (SEE)
• SiRF Technology Holdings Inc. (SIRF) after market close
• Symantec (SYMC) after market close
• Tesoro Corporation (TSO) after market close
• Watson Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (WPI) before market open

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Dividends

• Aon Corporation (AOC) - $0.150 payable 17-Nov
• Baker Hughes Incorporated (BHI) - $0.150 payable 14-Nov
• Citigroup Inc. (C) - $0.160 payable 26-Nov
• Eastman Kodak Company (EK) - $0.250 payable 12-Dec
• Eaton (ETN) - $0.500 payable 21-Nov
• Hasbro, Inc. (HAS) - $0.200 payable 17-Nov
• Noble Energy, Inc. (NBL) - $0.180 payable 17-Nov
• Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW) - $0.525 payable 1-Dec
• Realty Income Corporation (O) - $0.141 payable 17-Nov
• Southern Company (SO) - $0.420 payable 6-Dec

Earnings

• Affiliated Computer Services (ACS)
• Akamai Technologies Inc. (AKAM) after market close
• AmeriSourceBergen (ABC) before market open
• Apache Corporation (APA) before market open
• Assurant, Inc. (AIZ) before market open
• Avon Products Inc. (AVP)
• Ball Corporation (BLL) before market open
• BJ Services Company (BJS) before market open
• BMC Software (BMC) after market close
• Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation (COG) before market open
• Cameron (CAM) before market open
• CBS Corporation (CBS) before market open
• Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK) after market close
• CIGNA (CI) before market open
• Colgate-Palmolive (CL) before market open
• CVS Caremark Corporation (CVS) before market open
• Dominion Resources Inc. (D)
• Eastman Kodak Company (EK) before market open
• Electronic Arts (ERTS) after market close
• Expedia, Inc. (EXPE) before market open
• Express Scripts, Inc. (ESRX) after market close
• ExxonMobil Corporation (XOM)
• IntercontinentalExchange, Inc. (ICE) before market open
• International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF) before market open
• International Game Technology (IGT) before market open
• International Paper Co. (IP) before market open
• KLA-Tencor (KLAC) after market close
• Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO)
• Massey Energy Company (MEE) after market close
• Millipore Corp. (MIL) after market close
• Monster Worldwide (MNST) after market close
• Motorola Inc. (MOT) before market open
• Mylan Inc. (MYL) before market open
• Newell Rubbermaid (NWL) before market open
• Otter Tail Power (OTTR) after market close
• Southwestern Energy (SWN) after market close
• Sun Microsystems (JAVA)
• TECO Energy Inc. (TE) before market open
• Unisys (UIS) before market open
• Unum Group (UNM)
• Waste Management (WMI) before market open
• Wyndham Worldwide (WYN) before market open

Friday, October 31, 2008

Earnings

• American Electric Power (AEP) before market open
• Aon Corporation (AOC) before market open
• Apartment Investment & Management (AIV) before market open
• Chevron (CVX) before market open
• Clorox (CLX) before market open
• Cummins Inc. (CMI) before market open
• NYSE Euronext (NYX) before market open
• Progress Energy (PGN)
• PSEG (PEG)
• The Washington Post Company (WPO)
• Weyerhaeuser Co. (WY) before market open

Underlined tickers are those that are particularly interesting for me; they may be on my watch list or I may have open positions (i.e. likely naked put options or the underlying).

Bought back put options in SiRF Technologies (SIRF), swayed by emotions or smart trading?

I closed out my Mar 7.5 naked puts in SiRF Technologies (SIRF) today at 1.10 right before the end of day market rebound. I have been trying to close it on the ask for two days (chased it at 0.85 to 0.95 to 1.10) and finally decided to hit a small 10 lot that was splitting the bid/ask. I still managed a small gain. I lost money on the 1.00 of intrinsic value (delta) but that was more than canceled out by the money I made on vega (i.e. the decrease in implied volatility). The small gain came from theta (i.e. time decay).

For reference, I first sold Feb and Mar puts in SIRF when it dropped 50%+ (Added delta to SIRF and WB amid market freefall). I closed the Feb puts on expiration day for a small gain (Last minute juggling of SIRF and BBBY).

I am not sure whether this was an emotional trade or a smart trade. So I will give both view points.

Emotional:
I thought this was a great business with a large cash reserve with a market leading position in GPS chips. I don't doubt the cash on the books but the recent Garmin conference call has led me to doubt myself on the second point. There was a small hint that Garmin is shifting away from SIRF chips.

I am also becoming of the similarity between SIRF and NLS. I sold some NLS puts a while back at the 10 level and now the stock is around 4. I believe in NLS and I am buying more at these levels but it taught me the market can take a long time to recognize value. SIRF can go a lot lower before it bounces back. I don't want to get caught in a downtrend. I need to save buying power to add delta to the rest of my positions on the way down. (Can't decide whether this is fear talking or risk management.)

Smart:
As outlined in my trading plan (A naked put selling focused options trading strategy explained), I generally try to sell time premium. When SIRF hit 6.50 today, most of the value of the option was intrinsic value and I had earned all the time value I could. Therefore, there was no reason for me to be in the option. I should either take delivery (artificially by buying the stock and the put at the same time) or just close out the position (by buying back the put).

I shouldn't go against the trend. It was relatively stable at the 7.25 level while buyers added more positions to average down their costs. However, capitulation hasn't occurred and SIRF can go much lower (although it is supported by its cash position).

Going Forward:
I am going to keep a close eye on SIRF. I was interested in selling the Apr 5 puts at 0.20. That would give me a cost basis of 4.80 which is much closer to the cash value of the company. However, if I assume I am a smart trader and my pseudo-technical sentiment analysis is correct, it should go lower and I should be able to sell it for more premium.

The other reservation is also from my experience with NLS. Selling puts with tiny time premiums are a bad idea. It is the equivalent of selling super-catastrophe insurance. And if you believe in the black swan theory, markets have catastrophic swings more often than the options models would predict.

I am going to sleep on it and then we'll see what happens next week.

Last minute juggling of SIRF and BBBY

It's finally here; February options expiration is today (technically tomorrow).

NVIDIA (NVDA) is down again and my Mar 22.5 puts are now in the money. I am not adding more delta until either I can write a lower strike for enough time premium. Through no fault of my own, I sold the puts near the maximum time premium. The option contracts are quoted 1.90/2.00 right now. NVDA is around 22.15 so they have 0.35 intrinsic value and 1.55/1.65 time value.

I tried to close out my AEO/+AEOBD covered call but TD Ameritrade is dumb and won't let me. It says I don't have enough margin sell short AEO and buy +AEOBD. Little does it understand that I am simply trying to close the position. No big deal though, was trying to save a couple of cents on commissions.

As I suspected, BBBY would be interesting. It's down 0.84 to 29.07 so it appears my Feb 30 calls are going to go worthless. In a stupid move (to save a couple dollars), I am selling Mar 30 calls without buying back the Feb 30. Essentially, rolling out a month and then shorting the near month option. If you look at the transaction as two parts, the first part is smart (another 1.05 a share of time premium) and the second part is a little dumb (0.05 on a bet that BBBY won't rally this afternoon above 30). I would be ok if it did because I have naked puts for the May and Aug expirations so I have enough delta that I would be net long this position no matter what (for reasonable rallies).

I closed some Feb 7.5 puts on SIRF for a small 20% gain (Added delta to SIRF and WB amid market freefall). I am leaving the Mar 7.5 position on for now. I am currently in the black on that position due to reduction in implied volatility. There is a lot more calls than puts at the Feb 7.5 strike. I think this is contributing selling pressure to keep the price below the 7.5 strike (SIRF touched 7.5 a few days ago). So there is a chance that after the expiration, the stock could drift higher once the selling pressure is removed. So I am going to spin the wheel on the Mar 7.5. I will probably try to close it when the time premium goes down some more.

Not so surprising results from Darden (DRI)

Today, Darden (DRI) is up 8% after management gave some upbeat numbers and guidance. The same stock that was near 20 is now near 30. Yes, I regret selling my Jul 30 options for 2.95 when I could have sold them for 4 today. But what I regret more is not picking up more when they were at 0.60.

Investing (in the long term sense) is all about the numbers and valuation. Trading (in the short term sense) is much more about emotions. It's about having the confidence to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. I have this problem of picking a stock near its 52 week low, holding it while it gets killed some more, and then selling it for a small profit. That's better than some alternatives but still sucks. The problem is that this works most of the time but some times, they don't come back up. You need a couple large gains (10-baggers) to achieve abnormal returns.

Darden is a perfect example of this. It would have been an easy 50% gain had I put more money in at the bottom. I had the conviction (I wouldn't have in the past but I am getting better) but I lacked the margin. The thing I tend to forget is that when the markets are down, the maintenance requirements go up. I tend to run out of buying power and get margin calls near the bottom. So instead of adding delta, I am reducing delta at the worst time.

In an attempt to learn from my mistake, I didn't trade today. There are so many opportunities out there (EMC, SIRF, CDNS, BHI, JNJ, GE, etc.) but I figured the smart thing to do is to build up buying power and wait for a retest of the bottom. Usually volatility is pretty high during expiration week but today was rather tame. I am hoping the rest of the week is as quiet. Quiet days make for easy money from decaying time premium.

Added delta to SIRF and WB amid market freefall

Another day with blood in the streets. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) non-manufacturing survey results are out early and they don't look good. Survey says: Recession. Panic ensues and we get another 3% drop across the board.



Keep in mind that this is a survey and if everyone is flooded with recession news, they will believe that a recession is coming. This is also known as anchoring bias.

The hedges that I put on a week ago seemed dumb at the time (and a bit early) but they drastically cut my losses today. Without hedges, I am about ~4x leveraged and with them, I am about ~2x leveraged. However, some of my hedges are running out of premium (probably a good time to buy the calls back). In general, my portfolio has a naked put / covered call profile where I am long delta with negative gamma. So as the prices decrease, I am getting more delta. This fits well with my value based strategy. As prices decrease relative to value, there is a better risk/reward tradeoff and I am willing to take on more delta.

I have been reluctant to buy after the rally last week since I've turned more bearish while the market sentiment turned more bullish. I also could not understand why prices should go up given the constant stream of bad news. The rationale that bad news => fed cut => financial recovery is silly. It's like saying mortgages are good cause the government gives you a tax break on the interest. Rate cuts are weakening the dollar and causing a rise in commodity prices which are increasing costs for businesses. On the other hand, rate cuts are not increasing consumer spending due to constrained credit (i.e. banks are do not want to lend at these lower rates since they would rather use it themselves as capital). The 'consumer led recession' is leading to demand destruction. When supply decreases (due to higher inputs) and demand decreases (due to lower income), equilibrium output decreases (i.e. GDP decreases). And GDP decreases define recession. So, recession, here we come. But the word doesn't really mean much to me per se. I see it as an opportunity to pick up more assets at a lower cost. Capitalism at its best. I actually hate bull markets because it is hard to make a living as a put seller since I try to have enough discipline not to chase stocks. On the other hand, I love to sell insurance for quality companies at low prices and high premium (thanks volatility).

SIRF gave really bad 2008 guidance. 6+ brokerages smacked it with downgrades. Stock is down 55%. GPS technologies are good, but consumer electronics are bad. Niche analog semiconductor companies are good, but semiconductors are bad. Basically, I see SIRF as a good growth company hit with bad macro trends. However, I think they will do ok in the coming slow down. GPS devices are so competitive that the price reductions will be hitting the device manufacturers hardest. Sure things are bad but not 7 a share bad. SIRF has never traded at this level before. Although they have been issuing shares and diluting shareholders, it isn't that bad. Take a look at the past annual reports. I checked the current ratio and did a few quick solvency tests and they seem to be able to whether the storm. I doubt they will continue to issue shares at these prices (if they do, the management need to be replaced). We might even see a share buyback. The 1.4 a share in cash also doesn't hurt.

I sold a bunch of Feb 7.5 puts at around 0.5 and a bunch of Mar 7.5 puts at around 1.25. That would give me an average cost basis of approximately 6.75. Backing out the cash, that means I'd be paying 5.35 a share for a growing business in a great segment. That's me rationalizing my purchase; it could turn out to be stupid but analyst downgrades always make me over confident.



I also sold some Mar 30 WB puts as I have been doing for the last couple of months.