GSE bailout means interesting trading day

Financial stocks are going to be volatile on Monday following the Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE) bailout. I am not whether this is good news or bad news but the S&P futures are up 3%+.

I don't think this changes anything so I am still going to be selling on strength in the financials. I am going sell some shallow in the money calls on positions like Wachovia (WB) or Bank of America (BAC) on the surge tomorrow. This is an opportunity to put on hedges at good valuations (despite implied volatility being low).

Two Interesting Drops: Whole Foods Market (WFMI) and Otter Tail (OTTR)

During the day, Otter Tail (OTTR), a wind energy play, is down 20% and back to reasonable valuations after an earnings miss. Possible slow down trend in days to come as the Cramerica crowd get nervous. After that, it's a good put selling stock. High dividend payout means that there is some pricing support (and it's great to carry the stock while selling calls against it). I am looking at selling some longer term options.

Don't know much about OTTR. Did a rush read through the annual report during the day. They are a bunch of diversified businesses. So I am going to add some delta and then see where it heads. I like dividend stocks in interesting industries.

With the new lower multiple, it might be interesting to pair trade OTTR and FPL (i.e. short FPL and long OTTR).

Whole Foods Market (WFMI) misses and guides down. WFMI is down 20% after hours. I am short some Aug 24 calls against some naked Nov 25 puts. Looking to increase delta at these levels through a combination of events. Let the Aug 24 calls expire. Buy back the puts and the stock (artificial assignment). Then sell some more out of the money puts.

It wasn't hard to guess that WFMI would miss and guide down. High end groceries in a consumer led downturn. It's a matter of whether the news is priced in. On a huge rally day, the news seems particularly bad.

So, the interim plan is: Sell covered calls on banks (WB, BAC, BCS); sell front month naked calls (as a way of initiating a short position) on credit risk plays (COF, FNM, FRE); sell long term out of the money naked puts on commodities (CHK, FCX, VLO, TSO, FTO).

General Electric (GE) gets hit by an earnings miss

From GE investor relation: GE announced first quarter 2008 earnings from continuing operations of $4.4 billion with $.44 per share, down 8% from first quarter 2007.

As they say, "the market has a paddle big enough to give anyone a spanking". Nothing could be more fitting when the second largest company in the world by market capitalization (eclipsed by XOM due to the recent rise in crude). GE is down a whopping 14.66% or 4.70 to 32.05.

Not long ago, Jeff Immelt all but promised 15% growth this year. GE hasn't missed a quarter in years and even when it did in 2003, the miss was a penny. A 7 cent miss is huge for GE.

This is another example of the long tail of equity pricing. Stock prices do not follow a normal distribution; they have long tails. This is also known as Taleb's Black swan theory. Every options trader should be very comfortable with the idea that substantial moves happen more often than predicted by models. Such rare events is what makes naked options more dangerous than the statistics would predict.



Now back to GE. Industrials were strong due to currency and rest of world demand. Appliances down due to housing crisis. Financials down due to mark downs. Healthcare down due to lower demand for capital diagnostic equipment. None of this is surprising, per se. I don't know why analysts didn't bring down estimates.

I was slightly long GE before this (long the stock, selling calls against). I see this as an opportunity for me to pick up for shares for a great price, 15x trough earnings. I am selling at the money puts for June and September. The options markets are not increasing the implied volatility. This is bad since it means I get less time premium. This is good because it says that options traders are optimistic. Either way, I am reserving extra capital to handle a dip (since I am at the money) and in case of a volatility spike (since IV is low).

Covered calls, straddles, and strangles as hedges

As they say, the trend is your friend. S&P 500 is failing to breakthrough 13 day exponential moving average (EMA). I am taking this opportunity to fade the rally by adding hedges to my positions.

Most of the losses I have been suffering in this downturn have been to long positions I am holding. So today, I sold a bunch of calls slightly out of the money (OTM) 2-3 months out on many of my positions (i.e. covered calls). In addition, I am trying something new and selling call options naked against in the money puts, essentially turning them into short straddles or short strangles. I also sold some calls about support on my mess of Wachovia (WB) puts that gives me a weird P/L curve. It is basically a weird ratioed straddle with different months on the different legs. The P/L curve shifts right and up over time. The up shift is due to time decay (i.e. positive theta) and shift right is because my positive delta positions are longer duration than the negative delta positions. That is, the puts I sold are farther out than the calls I am selling.

In addition, I also sold some Washington Mutual (WM) short to hedge against my WB position. I don't usually short stock so this is somewhat of a toy position to gain experience.