Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Tried to grab some EMC, got greedy and missed it

The EMC options did not hit my target price when it opened (just like the model said). I slowly lowered by limit order and chased it all day. Didn't execute. Will try again tomorrow. FOMC statement coming out. It could go either way. If they cut big, then they are panicking and Bernanke put will be in the news. If they don't, people will whine. Either way, it could be up or down but probably volatile.

I noticed that VMW kept dropping during the day while EMC recovered. It was mostly due to the positive earnings report from EMC this morning. However, it does confirm (maybe confirmation bias) my theory that EMC is a fundamental play whereas VMW is a momentum play. Although I am not going to try to short VMW.

I am also going to try to grab some positive delta on Yahoo by selling out of the money naked puts. Today after the close, it reported earnings and wasn't too good. The main problem was that a part of the call was quotable. Everyone is talking about the 'Substantial Headwinds'. Down 9+% to 18.90. Also, laying off 1000 people. The cost cutting should be good for Yahoo to focus on their core business. Google isn't as great as people say and Yahoo isn't as bad. Reversion to the mean happens. I need to do some more due diligence but it's on my watch list (so I must have already looked at it before). We'll see how it trades tomorrow.

Also noticed LEN and other homebuilders at short term highs and overbought. Very tempting to short XHB (Spiders Homebuilders ETF) via options. Shorting the index is probably less risky than shorting individual companies. I am going to wait to see if there is an opportunity to deploy capital in EMC or YHOO. If I have the excess margin, I might get my feet wet. I like collecting premium so I'd probably sell a naked call rather than buy a put.

No comments: